Brent crude crossed $100/barrel for the first time since 2022 as US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Three weeks in, prices remain elevated and the conflict shows no sign of resolution. Here is what that means for your fuel bill, energy costs, and weekly shop.
The 2026 Iran conflict pushed Brent crude from around $70 to above $100/barrel within days of the first strikes on February 28. As of March 14, Brent closed at $103/barrel, up roughly 47% from pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz has gone from 138 daily transits to fewer than 5. Iran’s new supreme leader has vowed to keep it closed. At current prices, the average US household is paying roughly $620 more per year than at the start of 2026. If prices reach $150, that rises to over $1,400/year.
Iran is not the world’s largest oil producer, but its geography is decisive. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is the single most important oil chokepoint on earth. About 17-21 million barrels per day pass through it, representing roughly one-fifth of global supply.
When conflict escalates in the region, oil traders do not wait to see whether the strait is actually blocked. The mere possibility of disruption is enough to push prices sharply higher. This is called a geopolitical risk premium, and it can add $15-$50/barrel to crude prices before a single tanker is redirected.
In the 2026 conflict, the disruption is not theoretical. Iranian drone and missile attacks have reduced Hormuz transits to near zero. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have all cut production as storage tanks fill and export routes dry up. The IEA has described it as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
The 2026 situation is already the largest supply disruption since the 1973 embargo. Two precedents are particularly relevant:
| Event | Price move | Duration | Household impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 Arab Oil Embargo | +300% | 6 months | Fuel rationing, stagflation lasting years |
| 1979 Iranian Revolution | +150% | 2-3 years | Double-digit inflation in US and UK |
| 1990 Gulf War | +100% | 9 months | Temporary spike, resolved quickly |
| 2022 Russia-Ukraine | +60% | 12+ months | European energy crisis, 19% UK grocery inflation |
| 2026 Iran conflict | +47% so far | Ongoing – week 3 | $620+/yr for avg US household at current prices |
The oil price spike hits different countries differently, depending on local fuel tax structures, energy mix, and whether countries import or produce their own oil.
United States: Lower fuel taxes mean pump prices move more directly with crude. Gas prices have risen nearly 70 cents since March 1, reaching $3.59/gallon by March 13. The average driver now pays $200-$300 more per year in fuel alone at current prices.
United Kingdom: High fuel duty (around 53p/litre) cushions the percentage move slightly, but absolute costs are high. Combined with high energy bill exposure, UK households are among the most affected in the developed world. Energy bills are expected to reprice upward within the next 1-3 billing cycles.
Germany and France: Both are heavily dependent on imported oil and gas. German households heating with gas face compounding pressure as natural gas prices also track higher. Qatar’s force majeure on LNG exports has added further pressure on European gas markets.
Netherlands: Highly exposed through both petrol costs and gas heating dependency. The Dutch are among the most affected European households on a per-capita basis.
Australia and Canada: Both are significant oil producers, which provides some economic buffer nationally, but household pump prices still track global crude closely.
Use the MyCrisisCost calculator to get figures specific to your country and spending profile.
Fuel: Pump prices are already rising fast. Combining trips, checking tyre pressure, and smoother acceleration are immediate free actions. If you commute by car, now is a good time to explore whether any trips can shift to public transport.
Energy bills: Bills will reprice upward within the next 1-3 months depending on your contract. If you are on a variable tariff, locking into a fixed rate now could protect you from further rises – energy providers in the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands have already begun adjusting forward rates upward.
Groceries: The full impact on food prices takes 3-6 months to flow through as transport and fertiliser costs feed into retail prices. Now is a reasonable time to stock up on non-perishable staples and reduce food waste, which averages $1,500/year for a US family of four.
Pre-conflict oil baseline: approximately $70/barrel (Brent, early January 2026). Current price used for household cost estimates: $103/barrel (Brent close, March 14, 2026). Household cost estimates use pass-through rates of 65% (fuel), 40% (energy), and 15% (groceries) derived from EIA, IEA, and FAO data covering 2000-2024. US household baseline: 12,000 miles/year driving, $150/month energy, $600/month groceries.
This content is for informational purposes only. See full disclaimer.