Poland imports 96% of its oil, primarily from Russia until 2022, now diversified. High car dependency and coal heating mean complex oil price exposure. Full 2026 analysis.
Brent at $81/barrel. Poland avg petrol 6.42 PLN/L (approx 1.50 EUR/L). Average Polish household extra annual cost vs 2024: +1,200 PLN/year. At $120 oil: +2,800 PLN/year.
Poland generates 60%+ of its electricity from coal -- a domestic resource -- which provides significant insulation from gas and oil price spikes on the electricity side. However, Poland imports 96% of its crude oil (primarily via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia until 2022; now diversified to Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and North Sea suppliers via the Gdansk port). The fuel cost exposure is therefore primarily through transportation.
Poland has one of Europe's highest car ownership rates (650 cars per 1,000 people vs EU average 530) and relatively limited public transport outside Warsaw, Krakow and Wroclaw. Average annual mileage is approximately 15,000 km. At current petrol prices and fuel efficiency, a Polish household with one car spends approximately PLN 7,200/year on fuel -- making oil price movements highly impactful.
Poland's food supply chain is highly road-freight dependent. Diesel prices (6.12 PLN/L, March 2026) are up 14% vs 2024, increasing logistics costs for all consumer goods. Agricultural diesel use is also significant -- Poland is a major food producer -- meaning farm-gate prices are being squeezed. Food CPI in Poland has been running at elevated levels since 2022.
| Category | Extra cost now (vs 2024) | At $100 oil | At $120 oil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel / transport | +850 PLN/yr | +1,650 PLN/yr | +2,380 PLN/yr |
| Energy bills | +190 PLN/yr | +260 PLN/yr | +270 PLN/yr |
| Groceries | +160 PLN/yr | +270 PLN/yr | +340 PLN/yr |
| Total | +1,200 PLN/yr | +2,180 PLN/yr | +2,990 PLN/yr |
PKN Orlen (fuel prices), URE (energy regulator), GUS (CPI statistics). March 2026. Full disclaimer.
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