Oil prices 2026: the cost for Turkish households.

The lira multiplier effect

Turkey's oil price problem has two layers: global Brent prices in USD, and the TRY/USD exchange rate. Turkey imports oil in dollars; when the lira weakens, the lira cost of oil rises even if Brent is flat. The lira has depreciated approximately 15% against the dollar since January 2025. This means Turkish households face a compounded increase -- the global oil price rise amplified by currency depreciation. At 44.80 TRY/L, Turkey's petrol price is one of the highest in the region in lira terms.

Natural gas dependency for heating and electricity

Turkey generates approximately 20% of its electricity from natural gas and uses gas for heating in the majority of urban homes. BOTAS (the state gas distributor) has held residential gas tariffs below market cost as a subsidy, but this subsidy is being gradually reduced. Industrial gas prices have already risen significantly. The full pass-through to residential heating tariffs is expected within 2026, adding to household energy burdens.

Geographic position: Hormuz transit concern

Turkey's Bosphorus strait processes approximately 3% of global oil trade, mostly Russian crude destined for Mediterranean markets. Turkey is a Hormuz-adjacent transit economy -- a Hormuz disruption raises the strategic value of Black Sea and Caspian routes that flow through or near Turkey, but does not insulate Turkish consumers from Brent price rises.

Cost breakdown by category