Brent crude: $103/barrel. WTI: $97/barrel. Both up 68% since January 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Here is what today's oil price means in real money for your household - by country, category and scenario.
Brent crude: $103/barrel · WTI: $97/barrel · Brent-WTI spread: $6 · Change vs Jan 1 2026: +68% · Change vs March 2025: +47%
The primary driver is the Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since late February 2026, US and Israeli strikes on Iran have caused Iran to restrict tanker passage through the Strait - the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows. Fewer than 5 ships per day are passing versus 138 before the conflict. This is not a risk premium - it is an actual supply disruption of approximately 7 million barrels per day.
In response, the IEA coordinated the largest emergency reserve release in its history - 400 million barrels from strategic reserves across member countries. Despite this, Brent has remained above $100. Secondary factors include continued OPEC+ production cuts and record demand from India and Southeast Asia. US production is at 13.6 million barrels per day but cannot offset the Hormuz shortfall.
| Country | Pump price (March 2026) | Extra annual cost vs Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | $4.20/gal | +$2,825/yr |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 178p/L | +£1,146/yr |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 2.12 EUR/L | +€1,299/yr |
| 🇫🇷 France | 2.08 EUR/L | +€1,183/yr |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 2.41 EUR/L | +€1,127/yr |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | AUD 2.45/L | +AUD 1,840/yr |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | CAD 1.98/L | +CAD 1,620/yr |
| 🇮🇳 India | INR 112/L | +INR 24,000/yr |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 198 JPY/L | +130,000 JPY/yr |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | R$7.20/L | +R$4,800/yr |
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. It is the world's most important oil chokepoint - roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it daily, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Iran itself. There is no practical alternative route for most of this oil. When passage is restricted, global supply falls and prices rise - there is no other outcome.
The Strait of Hormuz would need to reopen to normal traffic levels. This requires either a ceasefire and diplomatic agreement between the US, Israel and Iran, or a significant de-escalation of military activity in the region. The IEA reserve releases are providing temporary relief but cannot substitute for 7 million barrels per day of lost supply indefinitely. Most analysts expect Brent to remain above $90 until there is a credible diplomatic breakthrough.
At $150/barrel the average US household would pay approximately $5,920/year extra versus January 2026 levels. UK households would face an additional £2,400/year. European households would see energy bills rise by a further 40-60% on top of current levels. Central banks would face a difficult choice between raising rates to fight inflation and cutting them to support growth. Most economists consider $150+ oil to be recessionary for Western economies if sustained beyond 3-4 months.
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