The 8pm ET deadline passed. Iran didn’t budge. Here’s what the three outcomes mean for your energy bills, fuel costs, and groceries — with numbers.
Iran accepts a framework deal via Pakistan. Trump pauses strikes. The Strait reopens gradually over 2 weeks. Oil falls back toward $85 as supply resumes — still elevated vs pre-war $61, but the acute shock fades. Energy bills and pump prices ease within 30-60 days.
Trump extends the deadline — he’s done it three times already. Iran stays defiant. Partial transit resumes through the Larak corridor at reduced volumes. JPMorgan’s $150 scenario starts to look credible. Households enter a sustained squeeze with no clear end date. Goldman Sachs has already raised its 2026 Brent average to $85 — this scenario pushes the actual average well above that.
Trump follows through. US strikes Iranian power plants and bridges overnight. Iran retaliates — IRGC has warned it will “deprive the US and its allies of oil and gas for many years.” Saudi Arabia intercepts Iranian missiles near energy facilities. The Hormuz closure becomes indefinite. Macquarie warns Brent hits $200 if the war extends into June. The IEA’s 400-million-barrel reserve release buys weeks, not months.
Oil price shocks move through household budgets in four waves: pump prices react within days, energy bills follow within weeks, grocery prices adjust within months, and broader inflation compounds over the following year. The 2026 Hormuz closure is already the largest supply disruption in history — 17.8 million barrels per day removed from global markets, versus 5.4 million at the peak of the 2022 Russia disruption.
The IEA’s coordinated release of 400 million barrels across 32 nations is buying time, not solving the problem. At current disruption rates, TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels of supply will be lost by end of April alone.
Use our main calculator to model your specific household exposure, or go deeper with the fuel calculator, energy calculator, or $150 oil scenario page.