Kerosene prices have risen faster than crude oil itself. 1.7 million UK households and millions more across the US and Europe are paying significantly more to heat their homes. Here’s exactly how much, and why.
Heating oil in the UK and much of Europe is kerosene, the same base fuel as jet fuel. That matters because the Strait of Hormuz crisis hasn’t just disrupted crude oil flows. It has specifically cut off a major source of refined kerosene.
In 2025, at least 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports came from the Middle East via Hormuz. That route is now effectively closed. The result: wholesale jet fuel prices have more than doubled, and kerosene (which comes from the same refining process) has followed.
This is why your heating oil bill has risen faster than the crude oil price suggests it should. Crude is up ~70% from January. But kerosene wholesale prices have moved even more aggressively because of the specific refining and supply dynamics.
Crude oil is the raw material. Heating oil (kerosene) is refined from crude, alongside jet fuel, diesel, and petrol. When a specific product like jet fuel faces its own supply crunch (as it does now with Hormuz closed), that product’s price can spike independently of crude. UK heating oil prices are currently driven more by the jet fuel market than by Brent crude directly.
If you’re one of the 1.7 million UK households relying on oil-fired central heating, you’re already seeing the impact. The average UK kerosene price has risen from around 59p per litre in early February to 66p per litre in mid-March. That’s a 12% increase in four weeks.
But the variation between suppliers is enormous. Current quotes range from 53p to over 90p per litre depending on your postcode and supplier. On a 1,000-litre fill, that’s a difference of up to £370.
Heating oil is just one part of the picture. Electricity, gas, and groceries are all rising too. The calculator shows your full household cost at any oil price from $62 to $200/barrel.
Calculate my energy bill impact →US heating oil futures have risen to around $2.44 per gallon, up roughly 14% since early February. Distillate stocks drew down by 5.6 million barrels in the latest EIA data, and crude feedstock costs are climbing with renewed Iran tensions.
The Northeast US is most exposed. Around 5.3 million US households use heating oil as their primary fuel, concentrated heavily in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. For these homes, the Iran crisis isn’t an abstract geopolitical event. It’s a direct hit on the winter heating bill.
Approximate UK kerosene cost per 1,000 litres at different Brent crude levels. Based on historical crude-to-kerosene passthrough with the current Hormuz premium applied.
| Brent crude | Est. kerosene/litre | 1,000L fill cost | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| $62/bbl | ~52p | £520 | Jan 2026 baseline |
| $80/bbl | ~58p | £580 | |
| $100/bbl | ~65p | £650 | |
| $106/bbl | ~66p | £660 | Current (approx) |
| $120/bbl | ~73p | £730 | |
| $150/bbl | ~85p | £850 | Hormuz stays closed |
| $200/bbl | ~105p | £1,050 | Worst case |
Compare suppliers every time you order. Current data shows up to 34p per litre variation between suppliers for the same postcode. On 1,000 litres, that’s £340 you could save just by checking prices.
Order mid-week. Prices tend to be slightly lower Tuesday to Thursday when demand from weekend orders has cleared.
Buy 900-1,000 litres for volume discounts. Most suppliers offer better per-litre rates at higher volumes. If your tank can hold it and your finances allow it, larger orders cost less per litre.
Join a local buying group. Collective purchasing through your parish council or community group can secure bulk discount rates that individual households can’t access.
Don’t wait until you’re empty. Emergency orders cost more. Order when your tank is at 25%, not when it’s critical.
Heating oil is one of four cost channels. Fuel, electricity, and grocery costs are all rising too. Get your total household number.
Calculate my total crisis cost →Heating oil (kerosene) shares its refining process with jet fuel. The Hormuz closure cut off 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports specifically, creating a kerosene supply crunch on top of the general crude oil price rise. Petrol comes from a different part of the refining process with more diversified supply routes.
Normally yes. Heating demand drops in warmer months and prices typically ease. But 2026 is not a normal year. If Hormuz remains closed and jet fuel supply stays constrained, the usual seasonal dip may be smaller than expected. The EIA forecasts Brent could fall below $80 by Q3 2026 if the conflict resolves, which would bring significant relief.
If your tank is below 25%, order now. Prices could go either way and running out means expensive emergency deliveries. If you have reserves, monitoring the situation for a few weeks is reasonable, but there’s no guarantee prices will drop while Hormuz is closed. Compare suppliers either way.
The UK average is approximately £660 (at ~66p/litre). But actual quotes range from £530 in competitive areas to over £900 from expensive suppliers. Always compare before ordering.