Every event that moved
the oil price

Largest protests since the Islamic Revolution. Iranian security forces kill thousands. Trump threatens military action. US begins biggest Middle East buildup since 2003.

Negotiations in Muscat. Iran says progress depends on consultations. Second round scheduled in Geneva. Markets cautiously stable.

Iran increases exports to 3x normal rate and reduces oil storage. In hindsight, this was preparation for war. Risk premiums begin climbing. War-risk insurance for Hormuz transits rises from 0.125% to 0.2-0.4% of ship value.

Trump says Iran has restarted its nuclear program and is developing missiles capable of hitting the US. IAEA discovers hidden highly enriched uranium in an underground facility. Diplomatic window narrows rapidly.

Oman’s Foreign Minister says Iran agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and accept full IAEA verification. Peace declared “within reach.” Talks to resume 2 March. This was the last diplomatic window.

Trump orders strikes at 20:38 UTC. CENTCOM and Israeli Air Force launch coordinated attacks using B-2 bombers, Tomahawk missiles, and HIMARS. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed alongside multiple senior officials. Nuclear sites, missile facilities, radar and command infrastructure hit. Oil surges instantly.

Iran fires ballistic missiles at Israeli cities, US bases in UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. 10 missiles with multiple warheads hit Tel Aviv area. 124 injured. P&I insurance policies invoke 72-hour cancellation clauses. IRGC warns ships in Hormuz.

Iranian drones hit British bases on Cyprus. Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel from Lebanon. Europe’s natural gas jumps from €30/MWh to €60/MWh in days. The conflict is no longer contained to Iran.

IRGC officially declares Hormuz closed. Tanker traffic drops ~70% immediately. Kurdish PJAK forces launch offensive into Iran from Iraq. Dow Jones falls 400+ points. Philippine peso drops to 59.5/USD. The global economy begins feeling the shock.

Over 150 ships anchor outside Hormuz to avoid risks. At least 16 commercial vessels attacked. Iran state broadcaster HQ in Tehran destroyed by Israeli air operation. Red Crescent reports 600+ civilians killed.

Iran declares Hormuz formally closed on 4 March. All remaining commercial traffic stops. Fire at Fujairah port (UAE). Iran strikes Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan airport. IRGCN claims it destroyed 10 commercial vessels. The 20% of world oil supply that transits Hormuz is now offline.

Qatar’s energy minister says Gulf producers may halt exports and declare force majeure. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd formally suspend all Hormuz transits. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait collectively lose ~10 million barrels/day of export capacity. California gas exceeds $5/gallon.

Oil surpasses $100/barrel, fastest crisis price rise in recorded history. US lifts Russian oil embargo for 30 tankers carrying 19 million barrels. France announces European naval escort mission under Operation Aspides framework. India considers deploying navy to protect supply routes.

Iran declares it will allow shipping through Hormuz only for countries that expel US and Israeli ambassadors. Lebanon’s president proposes ceasefire framework. IMF’s Georgieva warns prolonged war poses global inflationary risk.

Drones set fuel tanks on fire at Bahrain International Airport. US soldiers wounded at Erbil and Baghdad coalition camps. Two fuel tankers attacked in Iraqi waters and catch fire. Iraqi oil terminals suspend operations. First French soldier killed in action.

32 countries coordinate the biggest emergency oil reserve release ever. IEA says it reduces reserves by only 20%. Executive director warns: “This is not a lasting solution.” Analysts estimate it covers roughly 26 days of the shortfall. Mojtaba Khamenei (son of slain leader) named new Supreme Leader.

Iran allows a Turkish ship, two Indian gas carriers, and a Saudi tanker carrying 1M barrels for India to transit Hormuz. Drones strike Oman’s Duqm port, damaging a fuel storage tank. Even bypass ports are now targets.

US-Israel launches waves of strikes across Iran. Jask port in Hormozgan heavily damaged. IRGC claims 50th wave of operations against US bases. A Pakistani tanker crosses Hormuz with Iranian permission. Oil remains above $105.

Larijani was the highest-ranking official killed since Khamenei on day one. His son and security chief also killed. Iran’s CNN says Hormuz “cannot be the same.” Trump warns NATO faces “very bad future” without allied support.

Major escalation. Israel attacks infrastructure linked to South Pars, the world’s largest gas field, disabling most of Iran’s gas production. Gas flow to Iraq halted. Iran retaliates by hitting energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. Intelligence Minister Khatib assassinated. IAEA missile lands near Bushehr nuclear plant. Brent briefly hits $115.

Oil touches $119/barrel, highest since the crisis began. Iranian missiles damage Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal. Iran retaliates for South Pars by bombing BAZAN refinery in Haifa. First Caspian Sea strikes by Israel. US F-35 makes emergency landing after suspected Iranian hit. Netanyahu says Israel will halt strikes on Iranian energy sites.

Iran’s intelligence minister killed. Funeral processions in Tehran. IRGC says it’s still building missiles. Iran fires on Israel and Gulf states on Eid al-Fitr. UAE intercepts 7 missiles and 15 drones. Trump seeks $200 billion Pentagon funding. UN begins negotiations for humanitarian corridor to free 20,000+ stranded seafarers. UK sends military planners to work with US on reopening Hormuz. Goldman Sachs says triple-digit oil prices could last years. No resolution in sight.